The Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Natural influences mostly explain recent global warming. The 2020s will be cooler than the 1980s.

Main Message

Global temperatures will come off the current plateau into a sustained and significant cooling, beginning 2017 or maybe as late as 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3 °C in the 2020s, taking the planet back to the global temperature that prevailed in the 1980s. This was signaled (though not caused) by a fall in underlying solar radiation starting in 2004, one of the three largest falls since 1610 when records started. There is a delay of one sunspot cycle, currently 13 years (2004+13 = 2017).

(Please note that even if this solar hypothesis and prediction prove to be wrong, the identification of the errors in the conventional climate models and the finding that carbon dioxide is not the main cause of recent global warming are still correct.)


New Blog Posts

The notch-delay solar theory was introduced in the old blog posts of 2014, but was left incomplete. It has now been extended and updated, and is being rolled out at Joanne's blog in late 2015 and early 2016.

Old Blog Posts

The theory was initially introduced to the world in a series of blog posts on Joanne's blog in 2014:

Related blog posts: